Myanmar Crisis

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Context: Recently, ASEAN excluded Myanmar’s military junta from its annual summit held on October 26-28.

It is a major setback for the Generals’ attempts to gain regional legitimacy for their regime.

What is happening in Myanmar?

Ever since it seized power by toppling the democratic government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February, the Military junta has unleashed a reign of terror claiming an estimated 1,000 lives.
Ms. Suu Kyi, who had been the State Councillor for five years from 2015 heading the quasi-democratic government, has been in detention since the coup.
She is facing various charges, including violating the country’s official secrets act, possessing illegal walkie-talkies and publishing information that may “cause fear or alarm”.
Months after the seizure of power, the Military junta, led by Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, is still struggling to restore order

If in the past the National League for Democracy (NLD), Ms. Suu Kyi’s party, had upheld non-violence even in the face of repression, this time, NLD leaders have called for a “revolution”.
In cities, protests slid into armed fighting between pro-democracy protesters and security personnel, while in the jungles, anti-junta groups joined hands with rebels for military training.
The situation has become so grave that the UN Special Envoy warned this month that Myanmar had descended into a civil war.
Most recent reports suggest that the junta has been systematically torturing political prisoners.
Regime violence, political crises and strikes and counter-attacks by protesters have all pushed Myanmar to the brink of collapse.
According to the UN, some three million people are in need of life-saving assistance because of “conflict, food insecurity, natural disasters and COVID-19”.

What role is ASEAN playing in this crisis situation?

One of the regional groupings with some leverage over the Myanmar’s Military junta is ASEAN.
In April, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing was invited to Jakarta for emergency talks with ASEAN members. The bloc asked him to immediately end violence and start the reconciliation process
ASEAN requested Myanmar Military Junta to allow a regional special envoy to meet with all stakeholders, including Ms. Suu Kyi.
A special envoy was appointed as part of the ASEAN plan, but he was not allowed to meet Ms. Suu Kyi.
Recent decision of ASEAN to not admit Myanmar Junta during its summit is a reminder that continuing violence could cause regional isolation of the regime, which could worsen the crisis.

Conclusion

Violence might allow Myanmar Military to hold on to power for now, but that is not sustainable.
The international community should continue to put pressure on the junta and urgently start a reconciliation process.

Connecting the dots:

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