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Introduction:
India’s ties with Myanmar which has been in turmoil since February, 2021 when the military seized control of the country in a coup and detained Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders of her National League for Democracy (NLD) that had won a landslide victory in the elections of November 2020.
- Geopolitical interests: Myanmar sits at the intersection of India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East Policy’ policies, and therefore is an essential element in India’s practice of regional diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific, and serves as a land bridge to connect South Asia and Southeast Asia.
- With an authoritarian government at the helm of affairs, overtures to China will increase and India’s interest may suffer.
- Strategic location: It serves as a buffer between India and China. Myanmar has coastal access to the Bay of Bengal. It connects Bangladesh, China and the restive North eastern states of India.
- It is also close to India’s Nicobar archipelago. Instability will have consequences on security situation in India.
- National security: Myanmar-China border has become the epicentre of local armed separatist groups operating on Myanmar soil, and Indian groups, ranging from ULFA in Assam to the NSCN (IM) in Nagaland.
- Economic interests: India has interests in natural resources of Myanmar and also developing certain projects like India–Myanmar–Thailand trilateral highway and Kaladan multi-modal project which is to link India’s landlocked north-eastern States to the Myanmar Port of Sittwe, located in the Bay of Bengal.
- Instability in Myanmar will be a roadblock to these ambitions.
- Countering China: A weakened Myanmar falling into the clutches of China as a satellite state will pressurize India to do Beijing’s bidding in regional affairs.
Steps to navigate:
- India can aid the democratically elected government if there was a request from Myanmar. Myanmar is India’s strategic partner like Nepal, Bangladesh.
- India can help Myanmar like that of erstwhile Bangladesh in 1971.
- India has to strengthen the existing cooperation. India currently has an active co-operation with Myanmar in areas of security, counter-terrorism, trade and investment, energy co-operation.
- India has to encourage more active co-operation in these fields.
- India can formalise border trade with Myanmar. Currently, India’s Border trade with Myanmar is at a very low level. ‘
- By formalising border trade like that of Border Haats in India-Bangladesh and providing enough support, we can improve people to people tie.
- It will also provide peace in long run.
- India can assist Myanmar in the implementation of the Kofi Annan Advisory Commission report on Rohingya Refugee issues.
- The commission has recommended investing in infrastructure projects.
- The recent Indian government move in developing the Sittwe port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state is one such move.
Conclusion
- India should keep up the momentum by inviting Myanmar’s Foreign Minister & other important stakeholders such as leaders of political parties, civil society and think tanks to India for deliberations with their counterparts here.
- The single goal should be to put Myanmar back on the path of becoming“a stable, democratic and federal union”.
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